Weather Watch Likely Soon For Eastern MN

A severe weather watch is likely soon over portions of MN, WI, and IA, including the Twin Cities and Rochester areas. Storms are likely to develop soon, and will at least approach severe limits. The main threats appear to be large hail and damaging winds, though an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, mainly over western WI. Here is the following Mesoscale Discussion from the Storm Prediction Center -- We will follow up with any watches that are issued for the area.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT TUE MAY 04 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN/NRN IA/WRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 041949Z - 042045Z

SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH WW POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

STRONG HEATING CONTINUES ACROSS IA/SERN MN AND INTO WRN WI
ATTM...WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALING A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY E OF
DEVELOPING LINE OF CU FROM SERN MN WSWWD ACROSS N CENTRAL AND WRN IA
INTO ERN NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES REVEAL A WEAKENING CAP ALONG THE
CU FIELD -- COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...BUT
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS SLOW/WEAK DUE TO ONLY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE.

CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW ONGOING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO DEEPEN/INCREASE...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE HINDERED SOMEWHAT IN
INTENSITY BY THE THERMODYNAMIC LIMITATIONS...FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT OFFSET THIS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SCATTERED STORMS
TO INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. WHILE A LOW-END TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
APPARENT -- MAINLY OVER A SMALL PORTION OF WRN WI NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...MAIN SEVERE THREATS WOULD REMAIN LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL.