Good Fair Weather Today... Not so much in next few days... And more on TS Danny

Ah, its the start of the Great-Minnesota Get Together. The sign that summer is coming to an end for a lot of people (for some, its already ended) and typically hot and humid. Well, in 2009 the first part is still true, but at least for this first weekend that second part will be far from the truth. Because the State Fair is this weekend, we nominate this for the Weekend Getaway, a new feature for the blog where we will try to highlight an event that occurring or a certain place that you, the reader, are wondering about and give you the weekend forecast for the area. It may not happen every weekend, then again it might not happen after this weekend. A lot of this though comes upon you: We will take suggestions of events or locations you want the Weekend Getaway to be. To do this, leave me a comment at either my Facebook page or at the official blog at http://weathrlver.blogspot.com . Bring your suggestions, and if its an event, make sure you include the dates of it -- the best way to do events though is to submit them early in the week of the occurrence. That way it'll still be fresh in my mind before the weekend comes. And this weekends is easy -- it may be a degree or two warmer in St. Paul this weekend, but it will be just about the same weather we get here in St. Cloud.

We'll start off with the good news: One more day of summer-like weather today! Sunshine should regin for most of the day and we will approach a high of 80.

Tonight the cold front will start to push into the area, bringing with it mostly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of some showers and storms my morning, not likely to drop much if any rainfall overnight. Low 56.

Friday some showers and storms will continue over the area as the cold front moves though... should be scattered and we won't get much rain. Rain should clear out by afternoon, but it will remain cloudy with a high of 70.

Friday Night we'll see skies start to clear out as another cold front moves through, but some mighty fine cold air will be moving over the area with a low of 47. Wind chills possible.

Saturday has the chance of an isolated shower, otherwise we'll see a mix of clouds and sun with the coldest air so far this "warm" season with a temperature more typical of late September with a high of 65. (Record cold high: 59 in 1965)

Saturday Night the core of the cold air will move over us, and with clear skies and calming winds we will see lows reaching an incredible 42 for this time of year. (Record cold low: 38 in 1974)

Sunday should be a little warmer with sunnier skies, but highs will only top out around 69.

Looking ahead we should see highs start moderating back upward, and could see highs in the lower 80s for the last weekend of the State Fair.

The Tropics

Tropical Storm Danny is attempting to get a little bit more organized in the area of the Bahamas, but there is still much uncertain about this storm. Latest forecasts have this storm just skirting the Outer Banks and the Cape Cod area, but with Danny moving more westward in the latest forecast the model tracks could move more leftward in the next few hours, posing more of a threat to the coast. Either way, Danny is expected to become a hurricane sometime tomorrow night, but only remain a minimal hurricane with winds 75-80 mph. Whether this storm just misses the coast, or actually makes a landfall in New England, the east coast is expected to see some heavy rainfall and increasing wave height over the weekend, along with some gusty winds.

Meanwhile, we are watching a wave out by Africa that has about a 30% chance of becoming a system within the next 48 hours. Current models picking up on this wave have this becoming out next TS, and even Hurricane, within the next 5-7 days by the name of Erika.

Watching for a MUCH cooler weekend -- Keep the pitchforks away! -- And TS Danny

I can say that summer will continue through tomorrow. After that... be prepared for some fall-like weather moving in for the weekend (right in time for the Great Minnesota Get-Together)!

*Audience starts getting out their pitchforks and torches*

Wait, wait! Let me do the good news first! Today will see a mix of clouds and sun and we should be able to get up to around 77 for a high.

Tonight we'll see clear skies and 48.

More sun will reign Thursday with a high of 80.

The regime change starts Thursday Night with a cool front moving through, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms and lows getting to 57.

Friday rain should continue for at least the first half of the day, otherwise a mix of clouds and sun with a high of 71.

Saturday we will continue to see a mix of clouds and sun, but the ability of some showers and thunderstorms will be alive in the afternoon and evening due to an extreme difference between temps in the upper atmosphere and at ground level. Sunday should be a bit more sunny though. The big problem should be the temperatures, which is why you would want to use a pitchfork to me. I'm guessing that on both Saturday and Sunday highs will BARELY make it to the middle 60s, if even that!!! And to top that off... lows Saturday and Sunday Nights may plummet all the way down to the lower 40s and lower 30s (with a likely wind chill too)!!! And up north, especially Sunday Night, northern MN may drop low enough where frost/freeze advisories may need to be issued!

We should begin a slow warm up though at the beginning of next week. At least that's what I'm hoping. The cool summer continues... and the long fall season looks likely to begin. Oh, and to top it off, it looks like we could have a warmer than normal winter. Yeah.

Meanwhile in the Tropics, we had the formation of Tropical Storm Danny earlier today. Current forecasts have this storm forming into a Cat 1 Hurricane in the next few days and really affecting the coastline on the eastern seaboard by this weekend -- they have the storm skirting the Outer Banks of NC late Friday/early Saturday and possibly making a landfall in the Long Island/Cape Cod areas late on Saturday. Forecasts for tropical systems though are typically not that accurate, especially early on in a systems formation and even 3-5 days from now they are the most accurate. But Tropical Storm Danny is definitely a storm to watch for the east coast and right now poses more of a threat than Hurricane Bill did.

Sunny for now... Even cooler weekend?

Don't have to say much over the next few days...

Tonight mainly clear with some patchy fog. Low 52.

Wednesday mainly sunny. High 77.

Wednesday Night continued clear. Low 51.

Thursday (the opening of the Minnesota State Fair) continued sunny. High 79.

Friday then starts a pattern of even cooler weather that'll last throughout the weekend, with highs barely making it to around 70 on Friday with some rain/storms, and then likely not making it out of the 60s during the weekend (barely making it out of the 50s on Saturday). Not great weather for the State Fair... lets hope it gets better!

Rain Possible Later Tonight

Currently in STC we have sunny skies, but as the day rolls on we will start to see the sky cloud up ahead of a cold front moving into the area. High of 83. It will also be breezy with winds out of the south between 25-30 mph.

After sunset tonight rolls in the chance of some showers and thunderstorms, a chance that we will put at about 50-60% at this time. Otherwise it will be mainly cloudy with a low around 63. Rainfall around a half an inch.

Tuesday could see some lingering showers and storms in the morning, but will eventually be clearing back out. High of 78.

Tuesday night will see mainly clear skies with some fog likely, in areas likely dense. Low 55.

Wednesday more sunny skies and 78.

Rest of the week should stay dry, but a even greater cool down could be in store for the weekend... stay tuned...

Weekend looks nice, but rain returns by Monday Night

Ah, its the weekend before some kids go back to school around here (I'm talking about us college kids) and back into the workings of homework and studying hard for tests. After a mainly wet week and even some freak tornadoes, we are putting together a very nice weekend full of sunshine... even if it might be on the "cool" side of things. But then again, when haven't we really been on the cool side this summer -- it has just been one of those years.

After some fog tonight, I expect mainly sunny skies to reign the weekend, with highs in the lower 70s Saturday and approaching 80 by Sunday -- nice moving in weather for those moving into the dorms on campus.

For the first day of classes on Monday, that is when we'll actually warm into the lower 80s, though with increasing clouds in the afternoon leading to a chance of some showers and thunderstorms Monday Night into Tuesday.

After that, sun will rule the rest of the week with highs mainly in the 70s.

Tonight: Fog likely, otherwise mainly clear. Low 47.

Saturday: Brilliant sunshine. High 73.

Sunday: Continued brilliant sunshine and a little warmer. High 79.

Monday: Sun will give way to increasing clouds with late day showers/storms possible. High 81.

Freak EF0 Tornado in Minneapolis... But weather will get better

Well, that was sure an interesting Wednesday as almost out of nowhere a EF0 tornado pops down in south Minneapolis and tracks northward along 35W before dissipating as it reached downtown. There was basically no warning of a tornado happening. Heres what happened: An upper-level disturbance (in other words: a counterclockwise-rotating swirl of unusually cold air 4-8 miles aloft with was associated with a low pressure center) sparked a widespread deluge of rain, almost resembling an MCS (meso-convective system) which typically form at night. Even though it was cool ( it was only in the upper 60s) there was just enough instability, wind shear, and pure spin in the atmosphere thanks to the low pressure center to whip up brief, strong, rotating thunderstorms capable of hail and tornadoes, that were capable of dropping small, mainly weak tornadoes that didn't last long. There was little instability, but just enough spin in the lower atmosphere to allow this to happen. It wasn't expected to be a severe weather day, which is the main reason why this came almost out of no where.



This is an image from the SRV (Storm Relative Velocity) radar from the Chanhassen Weather Office. In this image, it shows air moving toward the radar site in green, and air moving away from the radar in red. As you can see, we do have a small ball of red in the sea of green, indicating strong rotation. The images at the beginning are as the tornado touched down around 2 pm, and as we move along a Tornado Warning is finally issued (box in red) soon after the ball dissipates as it reaches downtown, which is likely when the tornado dissipated itself. It appears that the circulation possibly passed over WCCO TV... brings up eerie thoughts if the tornado was still on the ground at that time what it would have done to the downtown area.

Check out this video posted up to Youtube from a security camera located at East Lake and 4th Street. You can literally see the pond at the center of the screen temporarily drain and a tree in the upper right land on a van. You even see the EF0 tornado pass right in front.

But this was definitely an moment where you would go "SHIT!" as the tornado formed without warning 1 mile from the MSP International Airport and 1-2 miles from downtown Minneapolis. Sure it was a weak tornado, but a tornado no matter what is a big deal, especially when it is in a popluated area, especially a downtown area. There is always the rumor that a tornado can't hit a metro area. This tornado definitely eliminates this theory, besides the fact that we had a tornado in Atlanta last year, and in 1999 had tornadoes hit Salt Lake City and Oklahoma City -- besides the fact that a tornado hit south Minneapolis at least 3 other times in history, the last being in 1981.

A study that was issued a few years ago took a fine focus on the Chicago area and what might happen if a major, F3-F5 tornado struck during rush hour. The projections were something you might otherwise see if you watched a horror movie: 3,000 to 5,000 people dead, 20,000-50,000 injured, damage in the BILLIONS of dollars.

Meanwhile, a couple hours later a weak EF1 tornado struck the town of Cottage Grove, an EF0 hit Hudson, WI, and an EF0 hit . Read more on all the tornadoes from the National Weather Service's statement below the forecast.

There is one thing that we need to take out of yesterdays Minneapolis tornado: We are quickly reminded that weather is not an exact science. Nor is our radar systems. Not every small tornado will be picked up by radar as it happens. Not all real threats can be captured by humans or technology as it happens. The human being is responsible for their own safety, not the National Weather Service nor your local meteorologist. My theory is that if there was a tornado elsewhere BEFORE this Minneapolis tornado, the meteorologists would have been on the ball and probably would have caught the circulation on radar of the Minneapolis tornado. Maybe not. But you never know.

But there is something else you can take away from this: Mark it on the calendar, the Storm Prediction Center was wrong again this season. Honestly, they were pretty good last year with predicting stuff, but this year they just seem to be wrong very often. They had a Slight Risk out at 8 AM, but revoked it from the area at 11:30 AM, and only put it back in a 3 PM AFTER the tornado had struck... and then it was almost 5 PM before they ever put out a Tornado Watch!!! Good grief!!!

D.J.'s Weird Theory of the Day: Ok, I came up with this at around 1 AM, so its a little out there. But is this Mother Natures way of getting back at us for such a late start of the severe weather season? Remember, we got to June before we had our first tornadic storm and for the first warning in general to be issued for the 7 county metro area. I know, its out there... but you never know I guess...

Upcoming forecast: Things are starting to clear out right now, but more showers are quite likely later tonight into Friday. The system should finally let its grip go on the area by tomorrow night and skies will clear out and sunshine will be back and with us for the weekend! Some rain might be possible by late Monday, the start of school at SCSU.

Tonight: Mix of clouds and stars early, showers likely moving back in by morning. Low 54.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and rain likely, with the best chance occurring around midday. High 67.

Saturday: Sunny, dry. High 74.

Sunday: Continued sunshine -- almost perfect day to be outside! High 80.

Monday: Increasing clouds, especially in the afternoon. Shower possible late. High 82.

Tornadoes

Minneapolis, MN Area EF-0 Tornado

A damage assessment team from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen surveyed storm damage in the Minneapolis area. They confirmed that a tornado touched down in south Minneapolis, initially near East 53rd Street and Park Avenue around 150 PM CDT. The tornado then moved north from that location toward downtown, and eventually lifted near the Convention Center around 200 PM CDT. Damage was most intense and concentrated from East 45th Street north to East 38th Street, generally along Park, Oakland, Portland, and 5th Avenues. The track shifted slightly west of due north with time. The most intense damage was consistent with EF0 intensity, with wind speeds between 75 and 85 MPH. Numerous trees were downed in the area, with damage to a number of homes and structures as well. Much of the structural damage was due to falling trees. The tornado track was approximately 4.5 miles in length, although it may have lifted for a brief time between East 29th Street and the Convention Center area. Maximum track width was approximately 500 yards, although the most intense damage occurred along a path approximately 250 yards wide.

Cottage Grove, MN Area EF-1 Tornado

A National Weather Service assessment team also surveyed storm damage from the Cottage Grove, Minnesota and Hudson, Wisconsin areas today. They confirmed that a tornado touched down near 122nd Street just west of Highway 61 in southern Washington county around 240 PM CDT on the afternoon of August 19th, where it initially produced EF0 damage to a roof, playground equipment, and a garage door. The tornado then tracked northwest across Lofton and Lockridge Avenues just west of Highway 61 in Cottage Grove, where it produced low end EF1 damage. The tornado either uprooted or sheared off a swath of large trees, many that were 2 to 3 feet in diameter. The approximate path length of this tornado was 1200 yards, and the maximum width was 75 yards. Estimated maximum winds with this tornado were 90 to 100 MPH.

Hudson, WI Area EF-0 Tornado

Damage from another tornado was found near County Road UU and Larson Lane near Hudson, Wisconsin. This tornado produced EF0 damage, and touched down shortly after 3 PM CDT. The tornado moved north-northeast and either downed or uprooted several 1 to 2 foot diameter trees, and also caused minor roof damage to multiple houses. The approximate path width was 25 yards, and the length was about 600 yards. Estimated maximum winds with this tornado were 80 to 85 MPH.

North Branch, MN EF-0 Tornado

The assessment team also confirmed that a tornado touched down in North Branch just southeast of the middle school. It tracked north-northwest through fields into a neighborhood near 2nd and 3rd Avenues and Cedar Street, then lifted near Rivercrest and Riverview Courts. The track was approximately 1 mile in length with a maximum width of approximately 200 yards. Damage was consistent with EF0 intensity, with winds between 70 and 80 MPH.

Southwest and South Central, MN

Skywarn spotters witnessed tornadoes briefly touch down in rural portions of Brown and Blue Earth counties on Wednesday, but only minor crop damage was found in open areas.

Deluge of Rain Upon the Area (From Wednesday, Interrupted by Tornados)

Through 1 PM, the St. Cloud Airport has picked up 0.69" since the rain began around 2:30 this morning, and through posting time the D.J. Weather Center has picked up 0.53". More rain will continue throughout the day as more showers and thunderstorms pop up in Iowa and Minnesota then eventually get wrapped around and brought back into the St. Cloud area. Temps are currently in the middle 60s and that is likely where they will stay for the rest of the day. A Flood Advisory is out for Sherburne County as well as part of the Twin Cities -- you can find the statement after the forecast.

More widely scattered showers are possible tonight, Thursday, and even into Friday before things start to clear out. This should lead us to have a nice weekend with some sunshine and highs getting to around 80.

Ragweed season has started, for those of you affected by allergies. Luckily though they should be held down the next few days due to the rain. More than likely though levels will start to increase once again this weekend.
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At this point, the forecast was interrupted by sirens and a tornado report in Minneapolis. Stay tuned later today for a rundown of the tornadoes that did occur, and the latest forecast for the weekend!

Favre comes on a nice day... not so nice the next few

On a day that has been covered with Brett Farve/Vikings coverage, we can not forget about the wonderful weather that he had to fly up to Eden Prairie in! Farve has just signed a contract with the Minnesota Vikings, a reported 2 year deal worth $25 million. Let's hope this means it is going to be a good season for the Vikings. But now on to weather after this:


Farve gets his #4 jersey via @robolsonfox9

Again, Farve had a brilliant day weatherwise to come up to Minnesota and becoming a Viking. With highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s with mainly sunny skies, a picture perfect summer day, at least in my opinion. Sure, it could be a little warmer for summer, but you got to enjoy the weather, enjoy the season!

Starting as soon as overnight tonight, a chance of showers and storms moves in with a slow moving system, better odds of rain come with it Wednesday afternoon and night. The severe weather chance we had been talking about has shifted more southward into Iowa and Missouri, but there is a chance of an isolated strong/severe storm with large hail and damaging winds as the front moves through.

More showers and storms possible Thursday in the cold air (highs won't make it out of the 60s), and it will be very blustery out.

Some leftovers may be still here on Friday, and we hope we can push everything out and end up with a fairly nice weekend with highs around 80 and mainly sunny skies.

Got an event, or want a specific forecast for somewhere on a certain date (within a few days) leave me a comment and I'll be happy to include it in the forecast!

Tonight: Becoming cloudy with the chance of a shower or storm (20-30% chance). Low 57.

Wednesday: Cloudy. Cool. Showers and storms, especially as we get later in the day (50-60% chance). High 71.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, continued coolness with continued showers likely (30-40% chance). High 65.

Friday: Clouds should start to clear throughout the day. High 72.

Saturday: Brilliant sunshine returns. High 78.

Sunday: Continued sunshine. High 80.

Cool Weather with Chance of Storms

We're talking storm chances, so we might as well start with the one later today. A "cool" front will pass through the area later today, not doing much temperature-wise over the next few days, but will allow for the chance of some widely scattered showers and maybe even a thunderstorm throughout the afternoon into the evening. With drier air finally here after the sweltering weekend, this rain chance will ring out little if any rain.

Tomorrow looks like a nice, sunny, dry day without any chances of rain in the forecast. Get out and enjoy it if you can before the summer is up!

Wednesday through Thursday comes in our next best chance of rain over the next few days. A strong cold front will push in from the north, bringing with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday Night into Thursday. Moisture from the south will likely surge into the system, bringing back the chances of heavy downpours and a chance of severe weather. The area is under a Slight Risk for Severe Storms for Wednesday, bringing with it large hail and damaging winds, even a few tornadoes early on in storm formation. As the day gets closer, we'll know more about the threat, but the main threat right now looks to be over Iowa.


Wednesday's Slight Risk of Severe Storms

This is going to be a slow moving system, so depending on how fast it decides to move will determine how much cloudiness will remain over the region for the weekend. Weekend highs should be in the upper 70s.

Today: Mix of clouds and sun. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 76.

Tonight: Mix of clouds and stars, eventually becoming clear though. Low 55.

Tuesday: Bright sunshine. High 76.

Heavy Rain Overnight

A heavy does of rain fell overnight in the region, as one line decided to sit over the area for a little over an hour, slowly moving northeast around midnight, then another batch came racing through about 5 am. Overall in the area, Paynesville came out the "winner" so far with a storm total of 3.95", with 1.32 inches between 1 and 2 AM (.79 inch in 19 minutes between 1:12 and 1:31 AM) and another 1.70 inches between 4 and 5 AM (1.54 inches in just 19 minutes between 4:12 and 4:31 AM).


Estimated rainfall overnight

Other notable reports from the area include Cold Spring with 3.43 inches, SCSU 2.24 inches, Alexandria 2.17 inches, Carlos 1.72 inches, Brainerd 1.29 inch, Little Falls 1.25 inch, Rice 1.12 inch, St. Paul-Holman Field 1.01 inch, Buffalo .92 inch, Milaca .90 inch, Mora .85 inch, Kimball and St. Cloud Regional Airport .83 inch, Redwood Falls .82 inch (only .17 inch at Redwood Falls Airport), and Long Prairie .79 inch.

Meanwhile, we have news from the PGA tournament out at Hazeltine from Tiger Woods. According to a tweet from KFAN's Dan Barreiro "Confirmed: Tiger prefers our rain showers to showers that have fallen on any other major ever. "Really wonderful rain here," rumored to say." http://twitter.com/DanBarreiroKFAN/status/3344871198

Some pop up showers and storms are possible throughout the afternoon until a cold front finally comes through and starts taking the moisture out of the air. Some cooler air will also move in with the cold front, keeping highs in the 70s for most of the week.

Another good dose of rain looks likely Wednesday into Thursday, as a system will move in and currently is forecasted to slow down/stall out over the area.

Today: Slight chance of a thunderstorm, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 75.

Tonight: Clearing out. Low 56.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Less humid. High 78.

Severe Chances: Friday, Saturday for sure, Sunday? Includes website announcement

A busy weekend is setting up weather-wise over the upper Midwest as there are severe chances over the next three days, especially Saturday. Here is the latest on how each day is stacking up and what you might have to brace yourself for over this weekend, along with ways you can follow the action this weekend. (Click the pictures for bigger views)

FRIDAY

A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has lined itself up over much of Mi, but it looks like most of the action will occur over southwestern MN, where some sun might be breaking out over the next few hours. It will start out as some discrete supercell thunderstorms, capable of some very large hail and a few tornadoes before forming into a line and moving through southern MN/northern IA overnight, with the main threats then being large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, some storms are possible in the overnight period across the rest of MN, with the main risk from them being some large hail.

Here is the tornado risk for today. There are actually two areas of a 5% chance, the one noted on the picture and one out in the western Dakotas/eastern Montana. Were mainly watching this are because it is likely that sun will break out in this area along with some convergence strengthening which will help rotating supercells to form.

This is the hail risk. A hatched area is over potions of southwest and western MN for large hail over 2" in diameter. As you may notice, this is in almost the same area as the tornado risk, the area that severe weather is likely to break out. Some hail though is possible over our area in storms overnight.

Damaging wind threat, mainly over southern MN but some storms in the area overnight could contain some winds over 60 mph.

SATURDAY

This is the day we are watching for your best shot at some destructive weather in the area. It is currently a Slight Risk of Severe Storms, but THE SPC HAS SAID IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK TOMORROW. Storms are expected to start developing over the area by late afternoon. Instability due to fronts in the area and very warm temperatures either here or just south of here (90 degrees) along with increasing shear in the atmosphere will support the likely strong rotating supercell thunderstorms that would be capable of destructive tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The only thing that might limit this development is today's cloudiness and overall development of storms later today and tonight in the region, which is why the SPC has not upgraded the area into a Moderate Risk as of yet.

This is the overall likelihood of severe weather tomorrow. As you can see we are in a 30% hatched area, the hatched meaning there is at least a 10% chance of SIGNIFICANT severe weather. Tomorrow afternoon and evening is a day you NEED to be aware of the weather conditions as of this time.

SUNDAY

Not going to show you the map, but there is a Slight Risk over most of WI and parts of southeast MN. Here in the STC area there will be some lingering showers, and maybe a thunderstorm, scattered throughout the day, but otherwise it mainly dry. Well, the ground might not be but there won't be much falling from the sky. It will also be very humid still.

KEEP TUNED IN

Over the next few days it would be advisable to keep tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest on the possible severe weather outbreak. Also, there are a number of sites online that you can turn to so that you stay ahead of the storms.

My NEW weather page at http://weathrlver.bravehost.com – During severe weather the radar on the site will be live until bandwidth is used up. Also you can find a link to my Livestream, but I don't expect to use that much this weekend.
My Facebook page
My twitter at http://www.twitter.com/weathrlver
MN Weatherden at http://weatherden.110mb.com/ -- Another live radar for when mine goes down along with other weather resources
Paul Douglas St. Cloud Weather Blog at http://pauldouglassaintcloud.blogspot.com/
Fox 9 Weather Chat and Live Radar at http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/generic/weather/Weather_Chat
Chanhassen National Weather Service at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/hazards/mpx
IEMBot at http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot/ -- Then click dropdown menu to find Twin Cities/Chanhassen
Storm Prediction Center at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/