FRIDAY
A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has lined itself up over much of Mi, but it looks like most of the action will occur over southwestern MN, where some sun might be breaking out over the next few hours. It will start out as some discrete supercell thunderstorms, capable of some very large hail and a few tornadoes before forming into a line and moving through southern MN/northern IA overnight, with the main threats then being large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, some storms are possible in the overnight period across the rest of MN, with the main risk from them being some large hail.
Here is the tornado risk for today. There are actually two areas of a 5% chance, the one noted on the picture and one out in the western Dakotas/eastern Montana. Were mainly watching this are because it is likely that sun will break out in this area along with some convergence strengthening which will help rotating supercells to form.
This is the hail risk. A hatched area is over potions of southwest and western MN for large hail over 2" in diameter. As you may notice, this is in almost the same area as the tornado risk, the area that severe weather is likely to break out. Some hail though is possible over our area in storms overnight.
Damaging wind threat, mainly over southern MN but some storms in the area overnight could contain some winds over 60 mph.
SATURDAY
This is the day we are watching for your best shot at some destructive weather in the area. It is currently a Slight Risk of Severe Storms, but THE SPC HAS SAID IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK TOMORROW. Storms are expected to start developing over the area by late afternoon. Instability due to fronts in the area and very warm temperatures either here or just south of here (90 degrees) along with increasing shear in the atmosphere will support the likely strong rotating supercell thunderstorms that would be capable of destructive tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The only thing that might limit this development is today's cloudiness and overall development of storms later today and tonight in the region, which is why the SPC has not upgraded the area into a Moderate Risk as of yet.
This is the overall likelihood of severe weather tomorrow. As you can see we are in a 30% hatched area, the hatched meaning there is at least a 10% chance of SIGNIFICANT severe weather. Tomorrow afternoon and evening is a day you NEED to be aware of the weather conditions as of this time.
SUNDAY
Not going to show you the map, but there is a Slight Risk over most of WI and parts of southeast MN. Here in the STC area there will be some lingering showers, and maybe a thunderstorm, scattered throughout the day, but otherwise it mainly dry. Well, the ground might not be but there won't be much falling from the sky. It will also be very humid still.
KEEP TUNED IN
Over the next few days it would be advisable to keep tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest on the possible severe weather outbreak. Also, there are a number of sites online that you can turn to so that you stay ahead of the storms.
My NEW weather page at http://weathrlver.bravehost.com – During severe weather the radar on the site will be live until bandwidth is used up. Also you can find a link to my Livestream, but I don't expect to use that much this weekend.
My Facebook page
My twitter at http://www.twitter.com/weathrlver
MN Weatherden at http://weatherden.110mb.com/ -- Another live radar for when mine goes down along with other weather resources
Paul Douglas St. Cloud Weather Blog at http://pauldouglassaintcloud.blogspot.com/
Fox 9 Weather Chat and Live Radar at http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/generic/weather/Weather_Chat
Chanhassen National Weather Service at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/hazards/mpx
IEMBot at http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot/ -- Then click dropdown menu to find Twin Cities/Chanhassen
Storm Prediction Center at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
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