Watch live streaming video from weathrlver at livestream.com
The storm is getting closer, and it is looking more and more likely that places out towards the St. Cloud area could see a foot or more of snow by the time all is said and done on Saturday.
It must be stressed that the picture basically remains the same from yesterday. Snow, ice, poor travel and windy conditions will affect most of the Upper Midwest starting Wednesday and lasting through Saturday. And, of course, the storm is coming from the south and west, so the storm will start sooner in places such as Iowa and Nebraska and make travel tricky as soon as even later tonight.
The later model runs have a more westward motion, bringing the lows track, of course, west. The models have the initial low dying out sometime during the day on Christmas Eve over western Iowa and reforming south and east before tracking through central Iowa on Christmas and into Saturday before making its way through Wisconsin throughout the day Saturday into Sunday.
It appears snowfall will spread north from Iowa Wednesday morning, and the first waves of snow may be approaching the area late Wednesday afternoon into early evening.
There are many question marks remaining with this storm, not only revolving around the track but the initial surge of warm air Wednesday into Thursday. This surge could make it into the Twin Cities metro area and create a period of sleet or even freezing rain, mainly during the day Thursday, before it changes back to all snow. More ice is expected as you head south and east from the Cities, making travel even more difficult. The only silver lining?: Less snow for the Cities.
It is likely to stay all snow, though, here in the St. Cloud area unless we get the low to track even more west than it is already. Either way, I do expect a heavy snowfall from the west Metro and westward. The heaviest of the snowfall will come Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before the system starts to push out on Saturday.
Snow, but on the lighter side, will linger throughout the rest of the weekend, but travel will likely remain difficult due to snow totals, any ice accumulations that occur, and some blowing and drifting that will occur from Wednesday Night onward.
Now, the snow totals. We look for consistency between models, and that is surprisingly what we are getting! (It's honestly a miracle that the computer models are staying so consistent with each other on the path and totals!) Even then, though, there remains a few questions about total amounts, not only in the Twin Cities but here in St. Cloud too.
The problem isn't moisture, though. We will have very humid Gulf air being pumped into the storm -- its what all that moisture could cause. We could have strong thunderstorms develop south of us. That moisture will get pushed into the cold sector eventually, but it could shut off moisture early in the storm -- it's very possible, but we should still get some early snow. Another thing I'm concerned about is thundersnow that could ring the atmosphere out of moisutre (and create higher snow totals in places!)
For now, though, I'm going to say 10-14" for the Twin Cities area (a lot of it will depend on the duration of any ice).
For the St. Cloud area, I am squarely putting us in the 12-18" range. Yes, I am putting St. Cloud on the edge of some of the heaviest snow possible from the storm. But we will not be in the heaviest. I'm thinking up to 20" could fall in places like Willmar southward towards Worthington and the Sioux Falls area. Here's one of the models showing this type of possibility. Expect 1-2' amounts over a good chunk of southern and western Minnesota.
If you want me to break this down for the St. Cloud area -- lets say 1-3" possible Wednesday Night, 3-6" Thursday, another 3-6" Thursday Night, 2-4" Christmas through Christmas Night, lingering snow (maybe an inch) through the rest of the weekend.
Winds are another factor, as by Thursday winds will pick up from the northerly directions at 20-30 mph, causing blowing and drifting and making travel even worse.
Some kind travel advise: Do not expect to get anywhere fast after the storm starts Wednesday Night until the storm ends Saturday or Sunday. If you must travel -- GO SLOW! Roads will deteriorate fast on Thursday and stay that way through Saturday. I know, its Christmas, you want to travel to relatives or whatnot. It might be best to stay home if you can -- but again, take it slow if you must.
Some things are still uncertain, but it is looking more and more likely the area will get dumped on by this storm. Make sure you stay ahead of the storm and don't get caught in it -- if you must travel make sure you have your car ready if you get stuck somewhere. Otherwise, get ready to shovel your butts off!
Depending on if I see anything important tonight, the next update for this forecast will likely be Wednesday before the storm starts hitting.
.JPG)
No comments:
Post a Comment