Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Nightmare Storm for Christmas brings visions of Halloween '91?

8-14" in the Cities, 16-24" in STC, Willmar, Brainerd likely – Winter Storm Warning begins at 9 PM tonight – And what about Santa?


NWS Chanhassen Weather Story

Watch live streaming video from weathrlver at livestream.com

As we await our snowstorm to develop, there are new details that put some of the heaviest snow totals in areas from Worthington to Windom to Willmar to STC to Brainerd and up towards Duluth. It looks likely that this area, along with areas west of here, will remain within the snow bands and have no turn over to some sleet and ice; therefore we could see the potential of up to 2 feet of snow by the time all is said and done on Saturday. If I had to narrow it down for STC, I would say about 18-22" at this time. Meanwhile, in the metro area, the totals will vary from 8" in the southeast (Cottage Grove area) to 14" in the northwest (Maple Grove area).

But why so much snow? Snow will just about be continuous across the area for three days – considerably longer than the 12 hours or so typical of a normal Minnesota snowstorm. Plus, a chunk of the snow will fall as the storm begins to develop over Iowa as the storm takes its slow time to move. Snowstorms that last a longer period of time often are the ones that top the record snowfall records – and that is true in the comparison that National Weather Service offices are making:

From NWS Twin Cities: THIS STORM SYSTEM IS REMINISCENT OF THE INFAMOUS HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD OF 1991...OVER 27 INCHES OF SNOW (28 inches fell in the Twin Cities and 37 inches in Duluth)

From NWS Sioux Falls, SD: REMINISCENT OF A STORM WHICH PRODUCED 30+ INCHES AT WILLMAR, MN SEVERAL YEARS BACK.

Winter Storm Warnings are out across most of the upper Midwest, including the entire state of Minnesota -- but a Blizzard Warning has recently been issued for the Duluth area.


One computer model estimated snowfall

Snow Timeline

The first wave of snow should begin later tonight, probably about midnight or so, and will be heavy from that period onward through tomorrow afternoon. A low pressure center is in the Iowa area and will likely stall out for the next couple days before losing steam. During the day tomorrow, sleet and freezing rain will mix in from the Twin Cities south and east, but should remain all wet, heavy snow elsewhere in the state. There will be a lot of trouble getting out of the area as early as tomorrow morning, as 2-4" are likely overnight in the St. Cloud area, with totals between 8-12" (if not more) by tomorrow evening.

A quick lull could occur from about mid afternoon Thursday until about midnight Thursday Night, but another surge of precipitation (second wave) should reach the central Minnesota area Friday morning due to a new low that forms in Texas later tonight and moves into Iowa on Friday. Another 4-8"+ is possible from Thursday Night through Friday afternoon and evening. It's these types of snows that should allow many areas such as Worthington, Windom, Willmar, STC, Brainerd, and Duluth see 16-24" of snow by the storm is mainly over Friday evening. The low will then drift off into Wisconsin and Canada over the weekend, and we could see another couple inches Friday Night into Saturday, but it will not be like the steady, heavy snow we see happening over the next couple days.

A few things could still affect this forecast. First, any westward jog of this system could affect the areas of heaviest snow and that get into the icy mix. Second, if the warm air mixes in farther north and west, creating a bigger icy mix and knocking accumulations down. And third, thundersnow. I mentioned this possibility yesterday, where aloft thunderstorms could concentrate heavier snowfall in areas. This is looking possible given the moisture and power this storm is likely going to have. This would reduce heavier snowfall elsewhere.

There is one big change in this forecast: Development is slower than was originally expected. Therefore it needs to be stressed to TRAVEL NOW! Travel should remain somewhat okay in most of MN, WI, ND, and SD today, but you may encounter some patchy ice in IA and southern MN, especially as we go later into the afternoon. Now is definitely the time to travel before the snow begins here (or the main icy component in Iowa). More than likely enough ice is possible to down power lines from Omaha through much of Iowa, so be prepared to be without power if you are heading to Grandma's in that direction. But, again, it must be stressed that if you do not want many travel problems, TRAVEL TODAY! LEAVE NOW! JUST STOP READING AND GO! (OK, don't stop reading. Please?) Also, get your shopping done today, as this storm will already be causing troubles for short distance traveling by tomorrow morning.

Heavy snow will of course have impact on travel, but areas such as Iowa and southeast Minnesota could accumulate up to an inch of freezing rain or sleet, enough to down tree branches and power lines. As you head toward the metro, there will be less accumulating ice, but snow will fall on top of the ice creating very slick conditions. Plane, train, and automobile traffic will be affected.

You can check up on the latest road conditions through the following links:

You will also need a car emergency kit, regardless of where you're going. While it won't be that cold, and the roads could be passable but snow-covered, you can never expect what may happen. Please see the Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers document from the NWS. Meanwhile, if you're in the area where significant freezing rain or sleet is expected, be prepared to lose power, so check the same document for home supplies suggested for power outages.

Check up on the current location of the precipitation through radar:

Check on air travel conditions from the FAA web site.

Actual ground reports:

And, local weather service offices with more on the current watches, warnings, and snowfall reports, along with record snowfall information:

Be prepared for this storm – that must be said a few times. This is not a paralyzing storm for most in the area – we have been through worse, and are hardy Minnesotans. We will get through this. The main concerns are the icy mix, along with the fact that the storm is coming at a busy travel time for many. I have it on good authority, though, that Santa will be able to make it to all the houses on Christmas Eve Night.

So there's your afternoon update. Future updates from me probably won't be as detailed (more like updating snow totals and rehash of this post) but stay tuned to these four sites for updates:

Get ready for the snow – and remember: Enjoy the season! Plus, five-fingered waves, please! And of course, any questions that you have please post and I will do my best to answer!

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