Cool Weather with Chance of Storms

We're talking storm chances, so we might as well start with the one later today. A "cool" front will pass through the area later today, not doing much temperature-wise over the next few days, but will allow for the chance of some widely scattered showers and maybe even a thunderstorm throughout the afternoon into the evening. With drier air finally here after the sweltering weekend, this rain chance will ring out little if any rain.

Tomorrow looks like a nice, sunny, dry day without any chances of rain in the forecast. Get out and enjoy it if you can before the summer is up!

Wednesday through Thursday comes in our next best chance of rain over the next few days. A strong cold front will push in from the north, bringing with it the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially Wednesday Night into Thursday. Moisture from the south will likely surge into the system, bringing back the chances of heavy downpours and a chance of severe weather. The area is under a Slight Risk for Severe Storms for Wednesday, bringing with it large hail and damaging winds, even a few tornadoes early on in storm formation. As the day gets closer, we'll know more about the threat, but the main threat right now looks to be over Iowa.


Wednesday's Slight Risk of Severe Storms

This is going to be a slow moving system, so depending on how fast it decides to move will determine how much cloudiness will remain over the region for the weekend. Weekend highs should be in the upper 70s.

Today: Mix of clouds and sun. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High 76.

Tonight: Mix of clouds and stars, eventually becoming clear though. Low 55.

Tuesday: Bright sunshine. High 76.

Heavy Rain Overnight

A heavy does of rain fell overnight in the region, as one line decided to sit over the area for a little over an hour, slowly moving northeast around midnight, then another batch came racing through about 5 am. Overall in the area, Paynesville came out the "winner" so far with a storm total of 3.95", with 1.32 inches between 1 and 2 AM (.79 inch in 19 minutes between 1:12 and 1:31 AM) and another 1.70 inches between 4 and 5 AM (1.54 inches in just 19 minutes between 4:12 and 4:31 AM).


Estimated rainfall overnight

Other notable reports from the area include Cold Spring with 3.43 inches, SCSU 2.24 inches, Alexandria 2.17 inches, Carlos 1.72 inches, Brainerd 1.29 inch, Little Falls 1.25 inch, Rice 1.12 inch, St. Paul-Holman Field 1.01 inch, Buffalo .92 inch, Milaca .90 inch, Mora .85 inch, Kimball and St. Cloud Regional Airport .83 inch, Redwood Falls .82 inch (only .17 inch at Redwood Falls Airport), and Long Prairie .79 inch.

Meanwhile, we have news from the PGA tournament out at Hazeltine from Tiger Woods. According to a tweet from KFAN's Dan Barreiro "Confirmed: Tiger prefers our rain showers to showers that have fallen on any other major ever. "Really wonderful rain here," rumored to say." http://twitter.com/DanBarreiroKFAN/status/3344871198

Some pop up showers and storms are possible throughout the afternoon until a cold front finally comes through and starts taking the moisture out of the air. Some cooler air will also move in with the cold front, keeping highs in the 70s for most of the week.

Another good dose of rain looks likely Wednesday into Thursday, as a system will move in and currently is forecasted to slow down/stall out over the area.

Today: Slight chance of a thunderstorm, otherwise mostly cloudy. High 75.

Tonight: Clearing out. Low 56.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Less humid. High 78.

Severe Chances: Friday, Saturday for sure, Sunday? Includes website announcement

A busy weekend is setting up weather-wise over the upper Midwest as there are severe chances over the next three days, especially Saturday. Here is the latest on how each day is stacking up and what you might have to brace yourself for over this weekend, along with ways you can follow the action this weekend. (Click the pictures for bigger views)

FRIDAY

A Slight Risk of Severe Weather has lined itself up over much of Mi, but it looks like most of the action will occur over southwestern MN, where some sun might be breaking out over the next few hours. It will start out as some discrete supercell thunderstorms, capable of some very large hail and a few tornadoes before forming into a line and moving through southern MN/northern IA overnight, with the main threats then being large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, some storms are possible in the overnight period across the rest of MN, with the main risk from them being some large hail.

Here is the tornado risk for today. There are actually two areas of a 5% chance, the one noted on the picture and one out in the western Dakotas/eastern Montana. Were mainly watching this are because it is likely that sun will break out in this area along with some convergence strengthening which will help rotating supercells to form.

This is the hail risk. A hatched area is over potions of southwest and western MN for large hail over 2" in diameter. As you may notice, this is in almost the same area as the tornado risk, the area that severe weather is likely to break out. Some hail though is possible over our area in storms overnight.

Damaging wind threat, mainly over southern MN but some storms in the area overnight could contain some winds over 60 mph.

SATURDAY

This is the day we are watching for your best shot at some destructive weather in the area. It is currently a Slight Risk of Severe Storms, but THE SPC HAS SAID IT IS POSSIBLE THIS WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK TOMORROW. Storms are expected to start developing over the area by late afternoon. Instability due to fronts in the area and very warm temperatures either here or just south of here (90 degrees) along with increasing shear in the atmosphere will support the likely strong rotating supercell thunderstorms that would be capable of destructive tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds. The only thing that might limit this development is today's cloudiness and overall development of storms later today and tonight in the region, which is why the SPC has not upgraded the area into a Moderate Risk as of yet.

This is the overall likelihood of severe weather tomorrow. As you can see we are in a 30% hatched area, the hatched meaning there is at least a 10% chance of SIGNIFICANT severe weather. Tomorrow afternoon and evening is a day you NEED to be aware of the weather conditions as of this time.

SUNDAY

Not going to show you the map, but there is a Slight Risk over most of WI and parts of southeast MN. Here in the STC area there will be some lingering showers, and maybe a thunderstorm, scattered throughout the day, but otherwise it mainly dry. Well, the ground might not be but there won't be much falling from the sky. It will also be very humid still.

KEEP TUNED IN

Over the next few days it would be advisable to keep tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest on the possible severe weather outbreak. Also, there are a number of sites online that you can turn to so that you stay ahead of the storms.

My NEW weather page at http://weathrlver.bravehost.com – During severe weather the radar on the site will be live until bandwidth is used up. Also you can find a link to my Livestream, but I don't expect to use that much this weekend.
My Facebook page
My twitter at http://www.twitter.com/weathrlver
MN Weatherden at http://weatherden.110mb.com/ -- Another live radar for when mine goes down along with other weather resources
Paul Douglas St. Cloud Weather Blog at http://pauldouglassaintcloud.blogspot.com/
Fox 9 Weather Chat and Live Radar at http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/generic/weather/Weather_Chat
Chanhassen National Weather Service at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/hazards/mpx
IEMBot at http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/iembot/ -- Then click dropdown menu to find Twin Cities/Chanhassen
Storm Prediction Center at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Severe Weather Blog for June 18

Severe Thunderstorm Watch includes Stearns until 9 PM

The Storm Prediction Center has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 until 9 PM. The watch does include Stearns County, but Stearns is on the far-most eastern side of the watch, and it is entirely possible portions of the watch could be replaced by another one later today. We will look in this watch box for large hail up to 2.5" in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph, though remember that severe storms do have the capability of producing tornadoes. Stay tuned for more updates throughout the afternoon and evening. It is still very likely that it's going to be a very severe weather day statewide. Already a couple storms in the Alexandria area as I type this are severe, and the storm forming west of St Cloud could turn severe soon.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
PARTS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES EAST OF
BRAINERD MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 461...WW 462...WW
463...WW 464...

DISCUSSION...AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE
AFTERNOON. WITH MLCAPES AOA 2500...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
BRIEF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23025.


...HALES

Current Warnings

Moderate Severe Weather Risk: Tornado Threat

The Set-Up

The STC area is under a slight risk of severe weather today, but just miles south of the St. Cloud area and stretching far into Iowa is under a moderate risk of severe weather – the moderate risk is as close as the Annandale area.

Right now we have a cap on the atmosphere due to storms that moved through earlier today. It's already hot and muggy out and we are starting to see the one thing we didn't need to see – the sun. It's only going to make things worse. We also have high dew points, an unstable atmosphere, strong "wind shear" aloft (we have winds from the south at the surface and winds from the west in the upper atmosphere, giving enhanced shear and a spin to the atmosphere for later) and we also still have some boundaries left over from last night's storms. All of these criteria make conditions ripe for more potentially violent, dangerous weather later today and tonight.

Storms could start sparking at any time, especially once we get to the 3 PM hour, and last through most of the evening and long into the overnight. Statistically, there is a 5-10% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any town as you go from St. Cloud southward through the late evening hours, and even as you get into southern MN there is a 15% probability of it. Tornado touchdowns are probable, especially in the dinner and rush hour timeframe, but it is yet unclear the extent of the best touchdown area at this time. Outside activities will likely be cancelled at some point once these storms start.

The Risks

This is the tornado outlook from 1130 this morning from the Storm Prediction Center. The circles entail the probability of a tornado touchdown within 25 miles of any point. As stated earlier, there is a 5-10% risk for much of southern and central Minnesota, even a 15% risk in far southern MN into IA. Many ingredients for isolated tornado-producing supercell thunderstorms are present. Watches and warnings, especially tornadic ones, across parts of central and southern Minnesota are likely. The blue lined "hatched" area indicated a 10% or greater probability of an EF-2 to EF-5 tornado within 25 miles of a point.

This is today's hail outlook as of 1130. It shows the probability of 3/4" of larger hail within 25 miles of a point, while the blue lined "hatched" area is a 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. The area is under a 30% risk of large hail, but the hatched area and the 45% risk area is both less than 60 miles south of the area. Remember, the hail criterion is now up to 1" for severe hail in the Midwest, including Minnesota.

Here is the damaging wind threat. It showers the probability of damaging winds of 50 knots or higher with 25 miles, and the blue lined "hatched" area of 65 knots or greater. We are also under a 30% risk of these damaging winds, but the main risk will be south into Illinois later tonight as the storms form into a line and bow out, creating even stronger winds.

Tornado Protection

This is taken directly from Paul Douglas's blog, which you can find a link to below

"In a tornado the safest place to ride out the storm:

* Basement, under the stairs. Statistically this is the safest place to be, under a desk or heavy piece of furniture if possible.

* Small, windowless room on the ground floor, like a closet or bathroom. People have survived F-5 tornadoes by hiding in their bathtubs, a mattress or blanket (or pillows) on top of them.

* Avoid outer walls/windows. Most tornado injuries are the result of flying debris and head trauma. That's why it's preferable to get below grade, underground if at all possible.

* In a school or office seek shelter near the interior of the floor, a concrete-reinforced stairwell or bathroom usually provides the best protection.

* Avoid mobile homes (which can become airborne at wind speeds as low as 80 mph). Avoid large rooms, gymnasiums, auditoriums - these are the first to collapse when a tornado hits.

* In a vehicle you can usually drive away from the storm. If that's impossible get out of your vehicle and seek shelter in a nearby building - OR - a ditch. Do NOT ride out the storm inside a car or truck or underneath a vehicle. Do NOT seek shelter under a bridge overpass (a wind-tunnel effect can increase the threat of flying debris hitting you there)."

Today, especially from 3 PM to midnight, looks like it could be very dangerous weatherwise. Keep ahead of the weather especially if you have any outdoor events. Stay with local media sources, NOAA weather radio, and these websites for the very latest:
My blog at http://kidweather.blogspot.com/
My Facebook page
My twitter at http://www.twitter.com/weathrlver

And a few other places—
Paul Douglas St. Cloud Weather Blog at http://pauldouglassaintcloud.blogspot.com/
Fox 9 Weather Chat at http://www.myfoxtwincities.com/generic/weather/Weather_Chat
National Weather Service Chanhassen at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=28783&source=0
Storm Prediction Center http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

June 17 Severe Weather Blog

Tornado Watch has been issued south of the Twin Cities metro area until 1 AM.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 439...WW 440...WW
441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 445...WW 444...WW 446...WW 447...WW
448...

DISCUSSION...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PRESENT ACROSS S/SE MN
INTO NRN IA...ALONG AND S OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE
WAVE IN SRN MN. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OVER THIS AREA IS AOA 50
KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT STRONGLY FAVORS DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND 0-1 KM SRH AOA
200 M2/S2 WILL FAVOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO MAY OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

...THOMPSON