Winter Storm Warning: Sticking with 5-10" (for now)

WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY -- STICKING WITH 5-10" POSSIBLE

Feeling a little better today so far, we'll see how long it lasts...

While the DC area deals with digging out form a history making snowstorm, not to mention one of the snowiest winters on record for the area (for example, Dulles Airport has had 60.0 inches of snow this winter (normal 13.6 inches) and Philadelphia has had 56.5 inches of snow (normal 10.7 inches)), we have only had 25.4" of snow this year, a chunk of which came in December with our Christmas Blizzard. But finally, another system is taking a look at hitting the upper Midwest... before heading out and dumping rain on top of all the snow in DC.

This storm is going to be long-duration BUT somewhat slow-accumulating storm. Even though the NWS, and many others, have upped their snow totals, I Between Sunday and Tuesday morning we are only going to receive about 5-10" of snow, with some isolated totals up to 12" mainly along the 94 corridor, something that could be considered almost skimpy for a two day storm -- mainly because even though the storm looks powerful, the storm holds little moisture with it. It's only due to the slow-movement of this storm that will allow for the high snow totals, otherwise we'd only be looking at a few inches (and probably a Winter Weather Advisory).

Snow totals look this way: 1-3" during the day Sunday, 2-4" Sunday Night, 2-4" Monday, 1-2" Monday Night, and 1-2" Tuesday if the storm sticks around long enough. While those numbers don't add up to my totals here, I do not believe at this time that I can push my final snow totals up from 5-10" across the area, with some isolated higher amounts.

What can you take for this? If you don't let it pile up, it won't be back breaking. Heck, this won't even be a storm where you need to go out every couple hours to shovel! It will pile up, though, if you don't regularly shovel it so make sure you keep on top of it! The main things I'm worried about though are a) The Monday Morning White-Knuckle Driving/Crashing that Minnesota is famous for, and b) the blowing/drifting situation that will develop as we go later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Other than those, this is not going to be that big of a deal in my opinion. Even though its going to be long duration, we are not going to remotely see what they saw in the DC/Baltimore area. Just stay on top of shoveling and don't hold it off until later on Monday or Tuesday and you'll be fine. Oh, and of course take it slower on those roads until MNDOT can get out and plow them a few days after the storm.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1258 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...LONG LASTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.A TWO TO TWO AND A HALF DAY SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH SOME
COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS...WILL
IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE LENGTHY DURATION OF THE SNOW...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD TO PRODUCE A BROAD SWATH OF SNOWFALL TOTALS
OF 6 TO 14 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD. THESE LARGE SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE MOST CONFIDENT TO OCCUR FROM NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND
LITTLE FALLS SOUTHWARD TO LITCHFIELD AND WILLMAR. LIKELIHOOD IS
INCREASING FOR THESE HIGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ALSO BE EXPERIENCED
ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES. SOME OF THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS EVENT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

ACCUMULATING SNOW WAS DEVELOPING...OR OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS WELL. EXPECT THE SNOW TO INCREASE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY MONDAY... BEFORE
SWINGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS ON
TUESDAY. THIS SLOW MOVEMENT IS THE PRIME REASON OF THE LONG
DURATION SNOWFALL AND THE HEAVIER TOTAL AMOUNTS.

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WOULD
CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS INCLUDES ALEXANDRIA...LITCHFIELD...LITTLE FALLS...WILLMAR...
AND THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR NORTHWEST OF ST CLOUD.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE WATCH...FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES
MUCH OF THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA...AS WELL AS ALBERT
LEA...CAMBRIDGE...HUTCHINSON...FAIRMONT...MANKATO...REDWOOD
FALLS...RED WING...AND THE INTERSTATE 35 AND 90 CORRIDORS.

WHILE CONFIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA CONTINUES
TO INCREASE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACTLY HOW THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN UPGRADE TO
WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MORE OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND LIKELY EXPANSION OF WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>043-047>050-055>058-080300-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100209T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD
1258 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASING IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...TWO DAY SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 10 AND 14 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP FOR PARTS OF FAR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Winter Storm: A Long-Duration Storm To Bring 5-10"

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY -- 5-10" POSSIBLE

Sorry, but this is going to be a quick blog on the upcoming storm -- I've spent most of the day (including now) dealing with a migraine.

While the DC area deals with a history making snowstorm, not to mention one of the snowiest winters on record (for example, Dulles Airport has had 74.6 inches of snow this winter (normal 13.6 inches) and Philadelphia has had 54.5 inches of snow (normal 10.7 inches)), we have only had 25.4" of snow this year, most of which came in December around Christmas. But it might be our turn again with this storm.

The big note about this storm is that it is going to be a long-duration BUT somewhat slow-accumulating storm. Between Sunday and Tuesday morning we are only going to receive about 5-10" of snow, with some isolated totals up to 12" mainly along the 94 corridor, something that could be considered almost skimpy for a long duration storm, mainly because even though the storm looks powerful, the storm holds little moisture with it. It's only due to the slow-movement of this storm that will allow for the high snow totals.

Snow totals look this way: 1-2" during the day Sunday, 2-4" Sunday Night, 2-4" Monday, 1-2" Monday Night, and maybe up to an inch early Tuesday if the storm sticks around long enough. This should leave totals of 5-10" in the area, again with some isolated higher amounts.

What can you take for this? If you don't let it pile up, it won't be back breaking. Heck, this won't even be a storm where you need to go out every couple hours to shovel! It will pile up, though, if you don't regularly shovel it so make sure you keep on top of it! The main things I'm worried about though are a) The Monday Morning White-Knuckle Driving/Crashing that Minnesota is famous for, and b) the blowing/drifting situation that will develop as we go later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Other than those, this is not going to be that big of a deal in my opinion. Even though its going to be long duration, we are not going to remotely see what they saw in the DC/Baltimore area. Just stay on top of shoveling and don't hold it off until later on Monday or Tuesday and you'll be fine. Oh, and of course take it slower on those roads until MNDOT can get out and plow them a few days after the storm.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1028 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIES AHEAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

.A LENGTHY PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE LONG
DURATION OF SNOW...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES OVER A TWO DAY
PERIOD. THESE LARGE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM
NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEST SIDE
OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES.

THE SNOW WILL BE PRODUCED BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA AND INTO
ILLINOIS ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND THESE FEATURES WILL WORK IN CONCERT TO PRODUCE THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON MONDAY NIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS
OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE TRAVEL CONDITIONS
TO FURTHER DETERIORATE.

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO LITCHFIELD
AND ALONG AND WEST OF A LITCHFIELD...TO SAINT CLOUD...TO LITTLE
FALLS LINE. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR FROM SAINT
CLOUD TO ALEXANDRIA.

A WINTER STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35... AND INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF HUTCHINSON...THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA....AND SAINT PETER.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A NEW ULM...TO MANKATO...TO OWATONNA LINE. THIS INCLUDES THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL OCCUR. STAY TUNED FOR LATER
FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

MNZ041>043-047>050-055>058-071230-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0003.100207T1800Z-100209T1200Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD
1028 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO
6 AM CST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM
CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING... SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING
AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT... SNOWFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF TEN INCHES OVER
THE TWO DAY PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE.

* OTHER IMPACTS... STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD... AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Nightmare Storm for Christmas brings visions of Halloween '91?

8-14" in the Cities, 16-24" in STC, Willmar, Brainerd likely – Winter Storm Warning begins at 9 PM tonight – And what about Santa?

NWS Chanhassen Weather Story

Watch live streaming video from weathrlver at livestream.com

As we await our snowstorm to develop, there are new details that put some of the heaviest snow totals in areas from Worthington to Windom to Willmar to STC to Brainerd and up towards Duluth. It looks likely that this area, along with areas west of here, will remain within the snow bands and have no turn over to some sleet and ice; therefore we could see the potential of up to 2 feet of snow by the time all is said and done on Saturday. If I had to narrow it down for STC, I would say about 18-22" at this time. Meanwhile, in the metro area, the totals will vary from 8" in the southeast (Cottage Grove area) to 14" in the northwest (Maple Grove area).

But why so much snow? Snow will just about be continuous across the area for three days – considerably longer than the 12 hours or so typical of a normal Minnesota snowstorm. Plus, a chunk of the snow will fall as the storm begins to develop over Iowa as the storm takes its slow time to move. Snowstorms that last a longer period of time often are the ones that top the record snowfall records – and that is true in the comparison that National Weather Service offices are making:

From NWS Twin Cities: THIS STORM SYSTEM IS REMINISCENT OF THE INFAMOUS HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD OF 1991...OVER 27 INCHES OF SNOW (28 inches fell in the Twin Cities and 37 inches in Duluth)

From NWS Sioux Falls, SD: REMINISCENT OF A STORM WHICH PRODUCED 30+ INCHES AT WILLMAR, MN SEVERAL YEARS BACK.

Winter Storm Warnings are out across most of the upper Midwest, including the entire state of Minnesota -- but a Blizzard Warning has recently been issued for the Duluth area.

One computer model estimated snowfall

Snow Timeline

The first wave of snow should begin later tonight, probably about midnight or so, and will be heavy from that period onward through tomorrow afternoon. A low pressure center is in the Iowa area and will likely stall out for the next couple days before losing steam. During the day tomorrow, sleet and freezing rain will mix in from the Twin Cities south and east, but should remain all wet, heavy snow elsewhere in the state. There will be a lot of trouble getting out of the area as early as tomorrow morning, as 2-4" are likely overnight in the St. Cloud area, with totals between 8-12" (if not more) by tomorrow evening.

A quick lull could occur from about mid afternoon Thursday until about midnight Thursday Night, but another surge of precipitation (second wave) should reach the central Minnesota area Friday morning due to a new low that forms in Texas later tonight and moves into Iowa on Friday. Another 4-8"+ is possible from Thursday Night through Friday afternoon and evening. It's these types of snows that should allow many areas such as Worthington, Windom, Willmar, STC, Brainerd, and Duluth see 16-24" of snow by the storm is mainly over Friday evening. The low will then drift off into Wisconsin and Canada over the weekend, and we could see another couple inches Friday Night into Saturday, but it will not be like the steady, heavy snow we see happening over the next couple days.

A few things could still affect this forecast. First, any westward jog of this system could affect the areas of heaviest snow and that get into the icy mix. Second, if the warm air mixes in farther north and west, creating a bigger icy mix and knocking accumulations down. And third, thundersnow. I mentioned this possibility yesterday, where aloft thunderstorms could concentrate heavier snowfall in areas. This is looking possible given the moisture and power this storm is likely going to have. This would reduce heavier snowfall elsewhere.

There is one big change in this forecast: Development is slower than was originally expected. Therefore it needs to be stressed to TRAVEL NOW! Travel should remain somewhat okay in most of MN, WI, ND, and SD today, but you may encounter some patchy ice in IA and southern MN, especially as we go later into the afternoon. Now is definitely the time to travel before the snow begins here (or the main icy component in Iowa). More than likely enough ice is possible to down power lines from Omaha through much of Iowa, so be prepared to be without power if you are heading to Grandma's in that direction. But, again, it must be stressed that if you do not want many travel problems, TRAVEL TODAY! LEAVE NOW! JUST STOP READING AND GO! (OK, don't stop reading. Please?) Also, get your shopping done today, as this storm will already be causing troubles for short distance traveling by tomorrow morning.

Heavy snow will of course have impact on travel, but areas such as Iowa and southeast Minnesota could accumulate up to an inch of freezing rain or sleet, enough to down tree branches and power lines. As you head toward the metro, there will be less accumulating ice, but snow will fall on top of the ice creating very slick conditions. Plane, train, and automobile traffic will be affected.

You can check up on the latest road conditions through the following links:

• Minnesota Road Reports
  
• North Dakota Road Reports
  
• South Dakota Road Reports
  
• Wisconsin Road Reports
  
• Iowa Road Reports
  

You will also need a car emergency kit, regardless of where you're going. While it won't be that cold, and the roads could be passable but snow-covered, you can never expect what may happen. Please see the Winter Storms: The Deceptive Killers document from the NWS. Meanwhile, if you're in the area where significant freezing rain or sleet is expected, be prepared to lose power, so check the same document for home supplies suggested for power outages.

Check up on the current location of the precipitation through radar:

• College of DuPage North Central radar loop
  
• NWS Upper Mississippi Valley radar loop
  
• NWS Great Lakes radar loop
  

Check on air travel conditions from the FAA web site.

Actual ground reports:

• NWS Minnesota Hourly Weather Round-Up
  
• UCAR Minnesota surface chart loop
  
• UCAR Dakotas surface chart loop
  
• UCAR Iowa surface chart loop
  
• UCAR Midwest surface map
  

And, local weather service offices with more on the current watches, warnings, and snowfall reports, along with record snowfall information:

• NWS Aberdeen
  
• NWS Duluth
  
• NWS Grand Forks
  
• NWS LaCrosse
  
• NWS Sioux Falls
  
• NWS Twin Cities
  
• NWS National Watch-Warning Map
  
• NWS Storm Prediction Center Outlooks
  
• Twin Cities Christmas snowfall records
  
• Top 11 all-time Twin Cities snowfall records
  

Be prepared for this storm – that must be said a few times. This is not a paralyzing storm for most in the area – we have been through worse, and are hardy Minnesotans. We will get through this. The main concerns are the icy mix, along with the fact that the storm is coming at a busy travel time for many. I have it on good authority, though, that Santa will be able to make it to all the houses on Christmas Eve Night.

So there's your afternoon update. Future updates from me probably won't be as detailed (more like updating snow totals and rehash of this post) but stay tuned to these four sites for updates:

• http://www.facebook.com/weathrlver
  
• http://www.twitter.com/weathrlver
  
• http://weathrlver.blogspot.com
  
• http://www.livestream.com/weathrlver
  

Get ready for the snow – and remember: Enjoy the season! Plus, five-fingered waves, please! And of course, any questions that you have please post and I will do my best to answer!

"Snowpocalypse" to dump 12"+ over the area

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY... 12-16" STC, 10-14" MSP...

Watch live streaming video from weathrlver at livestream.com

The storm is getting closer, and it is looking more and more likely that places out towards the St. Cloud area could see a foot or more of snow by the time all is said and done on Saturday.

It must be stressed that the picture basically remains the same from yesterday. Snow, ice, poor travel and windy conditions will affect most of the Upper Midwest starting Wednesday and lasting through Saturday. And, of course, the storm is coming from the south and west, so the storm will start sooner in places such as Iowa and Nebraska and make travel tricky as soon as even later tonight.

The later model runs have a more westward motion, bringing the lows track, of course, west. The models have the initial low dying out sometime during the day on Christmas Eve over western Iowa and reforming south and east before tracking through central Iowa on Christmas and into Saturday before making its way through Wisconsin throughout the day Saturday into Sunday.

It appears snowfall will spread north from Iowa Wednesday morning, and the first waves of snow may be approaching the area late Wednesday afternoon into early evening.

There are many question marks remaining with this storm, not only revolving around the track but the initial surge of warm air Wednesday into Thursday. This surge could make it into the Twin Cities metro area and create a period of sleet or even freezing rain, mainly during the day Thursday, before it changes back to all snow. More ice is expected as you head south and east from the Cities, making travel even more difficult. The only silver lining?: Less snow for the Cities.

It is likely to stay all snow, though, here in the St. Cloud area unless we get the low to track even more west than it is already. Either way, I do expect a heavy snowfall from the west Metro and westward. The heaviest of the snowfall will come Christmas Eve and Christmas Day before the system starts to push out on Saturday.

Snow, but on the lighter side, will linger throughout the rest of the weekend, but travel will likely remain difficult due to snow totals, any ice accumulations that occur, and some blowing and drifting that will occur from Wednesday Night onward.

Now, the snow totals. We look for consistency between models, and that is surprisingly what we are getting! (It's honestly a miracle that the computer models are staying so consistent with each other on the path and totals!) Even then, though, there remains a few questions about total amounts, not only in the Twin Cities but here in St. Cloud too.

The problem isn't moisture, though. We will have very humid Gulf air being pumped into the storm -- its what all that moisture could cause. We could have strong thunderstorms develop south of us. That moisture will get pushed into the cold sector eventually, but it could shut off moisture early in the storm -- it's very possible, but we should still get some early snow. Another thing I'm concerned about is thundersnow that could ring the atmosphere out of moisutre (and create higher snow totals in places!)

For now, though, I'm going to say 10-14" for the Twin Cities area (a lot of it will depend on the duration of any ice).

For the St. Cloud area, I am squarely putting us in the 12-18" range. Yes, I am putting St. Cloud on the edge of some of the heaviest snow possible from the storm. But we will not be in the heaviest. I'm thinking up to 20" could fall in places like Willmar southward towards Worthington and the Sioux Falls area. Here's one of the models showing this type of possibility. Expect 1-2' amounts over a good chunk of southern and western Minnesota.

If you want me to break this down for the St. Cloud area -- lets say 1-3" possible Wednesday Night, 3-6" Thursday, another 3-6" Thursday Night, 2-4" Christmas through Christmas Night, lingering snow (maybe an inch) through the rest of the weekend.

Winds are another factor, as by Thursday winds will pick up from the northerly directions at 20-30 mph, causing blowing and drifting and making travel even worse.

Some kind travel advise: Do not expect to get anywhere fast after the storm starts Wednesday Night until the storm ends Saturday or Sunday. If you must travel -- GO SLOW! Roads will deteriorate fast on Thursday and stay that way through Saturday. I know, its Christmas, you want to travel to relatives or whatnot. It might be best to stay home if you can -- but again, take it slow if you must.

Some things are still uncertain, but it is looking more and more likely the area will get dumped on by this storm. Make sure you stay ahead of the storm and don't get caught in it -- if you must travel make sure you have your car ready if you get stuck somewhere. Otherwise, get ready to shovel your butts off!

Depending on if I see anything important tonight, the next update for this forecast will likely be Wednesday before the storm starts hitting.

The Upcoming Christmas Snowpocalypse?

Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday Evening through Friday



First, this is not meant to scare you or anything, just to let you know about the possibilities of an large upcoming storm that could wreck havoc over the Christmas period for travel.

Within the past day or so, the computer models have started coming together and placing a possible snowstorm over southern Minnesota and the St. Cloud area from Wednesday Evening through Christmas. The models have the low of the storm passing somewhere between Chicago and southeast Minnesota, and bring a sizable amount of snow to the area. Right now the models are outputting as much as 20" over the Twin Cities (12z GFS Cobb, picture). The best estimate, though, is a good 6-12" of snow with even more possible.

A few factors are in favor for a large snow total. First, a favorable track has some of the heaviest snow over the area. Already, they are warning in the Sioux City area of 10-20" of snow from the storm. It would be that type of snow that lifts northward into our area. Also, the Gulf of Mexico will be open for moisture, allowing a wet snow to accumulate with a) snow-to-liquid ratios between 10-15:1, and b) liquid amounts possibly over 1".

I still have some worries about the storm though. First, the track is still very uncertain. We are still a number of days away from the storm, and the track could change by then. Also, the first surge of snow on Wednesday Night will have a warm factor to it, which could mean there is a mixture of sleet. It looks like, though, that that portion may only make it to the Rochester area, so that we will still see an entire snow event.

Right now, the system will come in three parts. First will be Wednesday into Wednesday Night. Next part will be later Thursday through Christmas Morning, and the third while the storm is departing late Friday into Saturday Morning. Also, especially from Thursday onward, winds will pick up from the north at 20-30 mph, creating some blowing and drifting.

Again, the best estimate could only be up to a foot of snow, but it will be redefined as we get closer to the storm date. Stay tuned as this storm will likely wreck havoc on many travel plans starting Wednesday.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

...FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT...

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.A FAST MOVING...BUT POTENT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE
IOWA BORDER.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER
MIDWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE PROLONGED PERIOD FOR
WHICH THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...THERE WILL BE MAJOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVELERS...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES AND THE EXACT
STORM TRACK IS STILL UNCLEAR...THE LARGE NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND EXPECTED HIGH ENERGY AND MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM SYSTEM IS SO COMPLEX THAT
WILL BE THREE BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT. THE FIRST IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE HAS ABUNDANT WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SO THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS THE IOWA BORDER. THE NEXT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH. THE
LAST WAVE WILL LIKELY BE THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHICH WILL OCCUR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE FURTHER
REFINED...BUT TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS COULD EXCEED A FOOT OVER PARTS
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...HOLIDAY
ROAD AND AIR TRAVEL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED.

MNZ041>045-047>063-065>070-076>078-WIZ014>016-023>028-220600-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0008.091224T0000Z-091226T0000Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-RENVILLE-
MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...
LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...
FOLEY...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...MADISON...BENSON...
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...
BLAINE...ST. PAUL...STILLWATER...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...
CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...
RED WING...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...
HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...
BOYCEVILLE...DURAND...PEPIN...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER...
EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
351 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING...SEVERAL PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WATCH AREA...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE STORM
INTENSIFIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

* SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS WIND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...BECOMING
MORE NORTHEAST...THEN NORTH ON FRIDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

JLT/JPR

Eleven Tornadoes Touched Down August 19

This is from the NWS. For more information, visit http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=mpx&storyid=30471&source=0

Minneapolis, MN EF-0 Tornado

A damage assessment team from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen surveyed storm damage in Minneapolis. They confirmed that a tornado touched down in south Minneapolis, initially near East 53rd Street and Park Avenue around 150 PM CDT. The tornado then moved north from that location toward downtown, and eventually lifted near the Convention Center around 200 PM CDT. Damage was most intense and concentrated from East 45th Street north to East 38th Street, generally along Park, Oakland, Portland, and 5th Avenues. The track shifted slightly west of due north with time. The most intense damage was consistent with EF-0 intensity, with wind speeds between 75 and 85 MPH. Numerous trees were downed in the area, with damage to a number of homes and structures as well. Much of the structural damage was due to falling trees. The tornado track was approximately 4.5 miles in length, although it may have lifted for a brief time between East 29th Street and the Convention Center area. Maximum track width was approximately 500 yards, although the most intense damage occurred along a path approximately 250 yards wide.

Minneapolis Tornado Path Map

Cottage Grove, MN EF-1 Tornado

A National Weather Service assessment team also surveyed storm damage from the southern end of Cottage Grove, Minnesota. They confirmed that a tornado touched down near 122nd Street just west of Highway 61 in southern Washington County around 240 PM CDT on the afternoon of August 19th, where it initially produced EF-0 damage to a roof, playground equipment, and a garage door. The tornado then tracked northwest across Lofton and Lockridge Avenues just west of Highway 61 in Cottage Grove, where it produced low end EF-1 damage. The tornado either uprooted or sheared off a swath of large trees, many that were 2 to 3 feet in diameter. The approximate path length of this tornado was 1200 yards, and the maximum width was 75 yards. Estimated maximum winds with this tornado were 90 to 100 MPH.

Washington County Tornado Path Map

Hudson, WI Area EF-0 Tornado

Damage from another tornado was found by the National Weather Service damage assessment team near County Road UU and Larson Lane near Hudson, Wisconsin. This tornado produced EF-0 damage, and touched down shortly after 3 PM CDT. The tornado moved north-northeast and either downed or uprooted several 1 to 2 foot diameter trees, and also caused minor roof damage to multiple houses. The approximate path width was 25 yards, and the length was about 600 yards. Estimated maximum winds with this tornado were 80 to 85 MPH.

Hudson, WI Tornado Path Map

Marine on St Croix, MN EF-0 Tornado

A damage survey determined that this tornado touched down in the southwest corner of Marine on St Croix at 325 pm and moved toward the northwest, knocking down a couple dozen trees and large limbs. It dissipated just northwest of town after being on the ground for 0.7 mile. Winds were estimated at 65 to 70 mph. Its maximum width was 40 yards.

New Trier, MN EF-1 Tornado

A damage survey was also performed on the area four miles north of Cannon Falls, MN, or just southeast of New Trier. A tornado touched down and almost immediately hit a farmstead. A roof was completely removed from a farm house, windows were blown out, and several sheds and other outbuildings were severely damaged. The tornado was initially about 50 yards wide, then narrowed to about 20 yards as it traveled through some corn fields and struck two other residences. Like several other tornadoes this day, it moved toward the north-northwest, ending one mile southeast of New Trier. Maximum wind speeds were likely around 90 or 95 mph, and path length was 1.6 miles. Touchdown was at approximately 216 pm.

North Branch, MN EF-0 Tornado

The assessment team also confirmed that a tornado touched down in North Branch, just southeast of the middle school. It tracked north-northwest through fields into a neighborhood near 2nd and 3rd Avenues and Cedar Street, then lifted near Rivercrest and Riverview Courts. The track was approximately 1 mile in length with a maximum width of approximately 200 yards. Damage was consistent with EF-0 intensity, with winds between 70 and 80 MPH. Touchdown was at approximately 400 pm.

Ham Lake, MN EF-0 Tornado

A storm chaser witnessed and photographed a brief tornado in a sparsely populated section of Ham Lake at 307 pm. No damage was reported.

Rural Ellsworth, WI EF-0 Tornado

A damage survey revealed a brief tornado touched down 5 miles southeast of Ellsworth and tore through a couple fields of corn. The width was rather narrow, only 20 yards at most. It was on the ground for only 0.2 mile, just north of the intersection of County Road V and DD. Touchdown time was about 257 pm, and wind speeds were about 65 to 70 mph.

Emerald, WI EF-0 Tornado

A storm spotter followed and photographed a tornado that briefly touched down several times as it moved northward, tracking from 3 miles southwest of Emerald to 1.4 miles west of Emerald. Tree limbs and other vegatation were occasionally tossed in the air. This occurred from 358 pm to 402 pm. Path length was 1.4 miles and the maximum width was 25 yards. Wind speeds were about 65 to 70 mph.

Forest, WI EF-0 Tornado

A storm spotter followed and photographed a tornado that briefly touched down several times as it moved northeast, from just west of Forest to 1 mile north of Forest. Tree limbs and other vegetation were occasionally tossed in the air. Time of this tornado was from 411 pm to 415 pm. Path length was 1.7 miles and maximum width was 25 yards. Wind speeds were about 65 to 70 mph.

Springfield, MN EF-0 Tornado

Skywarn spotters witnessed and photographed a tornado briefly touching down in Brown County, three miles east of Springfield, at 628 pm. Only minor crop damage was found in open areas. Wind speeds were approximately 65 to 70 mph.

Good Fair Weather Today... Not so much in next few days... And more on TS Danny

Ah, its the start of the Great-Minnesota Get Together. The sign that summer is coming to an end for a lot of people (for some, its already ended) and typically hot and humid. Well, in 2009 the first part is still true, but at least for this first weekend that second part will be far from the truth. Because the State Fair is this weekend, we nominate this for the Weekend Getaway, a new feature for the blog where we will try to highlight an event that occurring or a certain place that you, the reader, are wondering about and give you the weekend forecast for the area. It may not happen every weekend, then again it might not happen after this weekend. A lot of this though comes upon you: We will take suggestions of events or locations you want the Weekend Getaway to be. To do this, leave me a comment at either my Facebook page or at the official blog at http://weathrlver.blogspot.com . Bring your suggestions, and if its an event, make sure you include the dates of it -- the best way to do events though is to submit them early in the week of the occurrence. That way it'll still be fresh in my mind before the weekend comes. And this weekends is easy -- it may be a degree or two warmer in St. Paul this weekend, but it will be just about the same weather we get here in St. Cloud.

We'll start off with the good news: One more day of summer-like weather today! Sunshine should regin for most of the day and we will approach a high of 80.

Tonight the cold front will start to push into the area, bringing with it mostly cloudy skies and a 20% chance of some showers and storms my morning, not likely to drop much if any rainfall overnight. Low 56.

Friday some showers and storms will continue over the area as the cold front moves though... should be scattered and we won't get much rain. Rain should clear out by afternoon, but it will remain cloudy with a high of 70.

Friday Night we'll see skies start to clear out as another cold front moves through, but some mighty fine cold air will be moving over the area with a low of 47. Wind chills possible.

Saturday has the chance of an isolated shower, otherwise we'll see a mix of clouds and sun with the coldest air so far this "warm" season with a temperature more typical of late September with a high of 65. (Record cold high: 59 in 1965)

Saturday Night the core of the cold air will move over us, and with clear skies and calming winds we will see lows reaching an incredible 42 for this time of year. (Record cold low: 38 in 1974)

Sunday should be a little warmer with sunnier skies, but highs will only top out around 69.

Looking ahead we should see highs start moderating back upward, and could see highs in the lower 80s for the last weekend of the State Fair.

The Tropics

Tropical Storm Danny is attempting to get a little bit more organized in the area of the Bahamas, but there is still much uncertain about this storm. Latest forecasts have this storm just skirting the Outer Banks and the Cape Cod area, but with Danny moving more westward in the latest forecast the model tracks could move more leftward in the next few hours, posing more of a threat to the coast. Either way, Danny is expected to become a hurricane sometime tomorrow night, but only remain a minimal hurricane with winds 75-80 mph. Whether this storm just misses the coast, or actually makes a landfall in New England, the east coast is expected to see some heavy rainfall and increasing wave height over the weekend, along with some gusty winds.

Meanwhile, we are watching a wave out by Africa that has about a 30% chance of becoming a system within the next 48 hours. Current models picking up on this wave have this becoming out next TS, and even Hurricane, within the next 5-7 days by the name of Erika.